Has inflation peaked? Will the stock market boom this year? Who will win the NZ election?! James and Mike are joined by Luke Kemeys from Next Advisory and Keep The Change podcast to discuss their 2022 market predictions and make some predictions for 2023.
House prices will continue to fall.
Mike predicts that house prices in New Zealand will continue to fall by 5-10% over the 2023 year. However, transaction volumes are expected to be higher than last year, reflecting the current market where more buyers are recognising the discounts available on property. Banks are also expected to become more competitive on interest rates in order to gain a larger market share.
The share market will increase by 15%
James predicts that the share market will increase by 15%. He believes that inflation is the major metric underpinning confidence in the markets at the moment. With inflation predicted to have already peaked, as soon as we start seeing a decrease in inflation numbers, the stock market will likely regain confidence and start recovering consistently throughout the year.
Labour will win the October election
Luke predicts that Labour will win the October election. He believes that as we get closer to the election, Labour and National will find ways to buy votes from Kiwis, in the form of tax cuts or stimulus cash. However, Luke thinks that Labour is traditionally better at this than National, and Kiwis will vote in their self-interests. In recent history, no government has failed to win a third term in power since MMP was established in NZ.
